Fianna Fáil in Dublin – Follow the polls or the money?

The Evening Herald has published its latest opinion poll on the state of the parties in Dublin.  According to their findings, and their analysis by Adrian Kavanagh of NUI Maynooth Fine Gael and Labour will each take 17 seats, Sinn Féin 6, The United Left Alliance 4, Independents 2, Fianna Fáil 1 and The Green Party O.

Looking at the betting markets it would appear that Fianna Fáil are doing somewhat better with a likely haul of five.  Fine Gael and labour would still take the lions share with 15 each.  Sinn Fein come in on a similar 6, the Greens agains have none and there is one fewer ULA and one more Independent.

On a constituency basis it would appear that the Herald and Kavanagh has one of either Maureen O’Sullivan, Finian McGrath or Shane Ross missing out though in betting terms at least all are long odds on.

Fianna Fáil though is the most interesting.  The poll analysis has only one TD returned while Irish Polling Report, in their analysis country wide, has it even worse with not a single Fianna Fáil representative  returned to the Dáil from the capital.

The five Fianna Fáil candidates which the betting forecasts indicate will make it are Michael Kennedy in Dublin North West whose nearest challenger is fellow Fianna Fáiler Darragh O’Brien; Maria Corrigan in Dublin South who would appear to have Aidan Culhane and Eamon Ryan as her closest rivals for the last of the five seats; Michael Mulcahy in Dublin South Central who like Corrigan is running as the sole representative of the party and looks to be in a battle with Bríd Smyth of the United Left Alliance; Brian Lenihan who looks the safest in Dublin West; and Mary Hanafin who is most at risk of the five against Mary Mitchell O’Connor and Ivana Bacik in Dun Laoghaire.

There is of course a massive swing against Fianna Fáil but it could be that people will be less likely to say publicly that they would give them a vote than they would in the confines of the polling booth on February 25th.


One response to “Fianna Fáil in Dublin – Follow the polls or the money?

  1. Pingback: Wordles, Wonderbras and Fianna Fáil in Dublin – What it says in the blogs – Tuesday 15th February | General Election 2011 – A view from the left

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